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Full text of "Rapid Population Growth Consequences And Policy Implications"

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rates. The principal demographic effect of rapid population growth res' from a high and nearly constant birth rate and a low death rate—as cent with a nearly stationary population having both a high birth rate and death rate—is that the number of families in each generation is very larger than in the preceding generation. This situation has serious quences for a rural society with a limited supply of arable land, bee means that the size of farms for each family greatly diminishes fro generation to the next.
We may divide the less developed countries at the present time int
groups on the basis of their population patterns: (1) countries with bo
birth rates and high death rates; (2) countries with high birth rates a
death rates; and (3) countries with intermediate and declining birth n
low death rates. The first group consists of those countries, most ir
and some in Asia, in which per capita incomes are extremely low
process of modernization has barely begun. Probably only a few ]
million people are in this group. Most of the less developed countrie
and Latin America, and some in Africa—in all containing nearly '
people—are in the second group. The third consists of a few countrif
fringe of Asia and in Latin America, in several of which there ha
marked improvement in economic and social conditions during ti
In the high-birth-rate, high-death-rate countries the life expe about equal to that of Sweden in 1800, but birth rates are about 5 higher and the rate of population growth several times as great as i 170 years ago. (See Table 1.) In Honduras and Taiwan, which ai tively, examples of the second and third groups of countries, the c are lower than in Sweden in 1966, because of their very young p even though their life expectancies are less than the Swedish. Birth to 3 times as high, and rates of population growth 4.5 to 6 times Taiwan and Honduras than in Sweden today. There is about on every child under 15 in all three groups of less developed countr trast to nearly four adults per child in Sweden in 1966.
Possible Future Increase in Rates of Population Growth
In the coming years it is possible that population growth rates ing areas will continue to increase, even after declines in fertility for continued declines in mortality may more than offset decline for some time. World population growth rates will continue tc in growth rates in economically advanced areas are mon